Cramer the Grinch / New SEC Chairwoman

FOX Business Network sent out a Christmas card featuring Jim Cramer as Grinch:

Fox Business Network launched this year, and I don't know anybody watching it.

As annoying as CNBC is, I'd rather watch CNBC.  That was a cheap shot.  

Then today Obama nominated Mary Shapiro as the next SEC chairwoman.  The street did not look inspired this time.  I was not happy either.  I did not see bears running away today when she showed up with Obama.  She has been in this business all her life.  I think the street saw "business as usual" in her nomination.

Yes "Change" requires people with experience and vision.  We needed a new clean version of Eliot Spitzer , a mean enforcement machine.  She seems to be a nice lady.  I just hope she turns out to be......

Jim Cramer for SEC Chairman / Leveraged ETF and Volatility

On today's show, Cramer nominated himself for the next SEC Chairman pounding on Christopher Cox.  He used to be a hedge fund manager, and a Goldman alumni, he knows all the tricks....he knows how to kill bad bears...  His explanation of the impact of double/triple leveraged ETFs on such volatility made perfect sense.  

He has repeatedly criticized Cox for a long time especially on his short friendly policies (removal of the uptick rule, ignoring naked short selling, etc).  He has also openly talked about option expiry week manipulation.  But he failed to admit that the oil price last summer was due to speculation.  

He made good points...here's what he will do:

Investigate the bear raiders. Subpoena the tapes, the e-mails, the instant messages. Follow the evidence to the wrongdoers. Hold people accountable for the damage done to Lehman Brothers, et al.

Bring back the uptick rule. Remember this little regulation? It prevented traders from selling a stock short until it first ticked up in price. Cox repealed the rule, allowing company after company to be virtually obliterated. This is why the Dow can drop 9% in a single day, like it did Monday.

Get rid of overleveraged exchange-traded funds. Double- or triple-short ETFs allow investors to sidestep important margin rules. A dollar turns into two or three, increasing the size of a bear raid. In fact, these ETFs have had a direct effect on the market recently in ways you probably recognize: ETF orders are placed at 3 PM ET, and executed at 3:40. Does this kind of terrible last-minute action sound familiar to you? Again, just look at what happened Monday if you need proof.

Watch for market manipulation. Why does Exxon Mobil [XOM  77.61    3.30  (+4.44%)   ], the largest stock by market cap, trade like a penny stock in the final minutes of the session? Because of the aforementioned ETFs. Of course, Chris Cox believes that the market’s too big to be manipulated, and that’s one of the reasons why we keep getting hurt. Cramer vowed to stop this.

Demand transparency. Cramer’s amazed that Citigroup’s [C  7.22    0.77  (+11.94%)   ] balance sheet – and that of AIG [AIG  1.87    0.22  (+13.27%)   ] – showed none of the problems that eventually warranted a government rescue. How is that possible? Cramer wants transparent financials. Companies that don’t pony up will be held responsible.

I have had love/hate sentiment about Cramer.  When he recommends AAPL, it seems that shorts start selling aggressively.  And when he says "sell AAPL", his explanation is not good enough.

  

Video Link: Video - CNBC.com

These are the prominent short sellers: The Wizards of Short-Selling - BusinessWeek

The Wall Streeet Fiasco - What goes around comes around

Within a week, 2 brokers disappeared, and AIG practically crashed.

What went wrong?  CEOs trusted their old boys network too much.  They took too wrong to fix their problems.  It is easy to blame them.  These are pretty smart guys....   Without getting into technicals, I would like to be political here.

I blame Christopher Cox, the chairman of SEC.  He was appointed by Bush.  Cox deregulated as much as he could and made SEC business friendly.  

What happened to Bear, LEH, and what's happening to GS and MS now are also cause by themselves.

Cox removed the uptick rule in July 2007, and let naked short sellers go wild.  Big boys wanted such freedom in the market place so they could take down their targets like Tony Soprano.  But, what goes around comes around, they became victims of their creation. a play ground for short sellers.  Now shorts are killing them.

Financial institutions are easy targets for short sellers.  This is how it works.

When a stock price declines rapidly, rating agencies put them on a watch list requesting the company to raise capital.  In this environment, it is very difficult to raise capital, so they go into liquidity crisis.  The rating agencies downgrade them, it will be even harder to raise capital....  So, once a bank becomes are target, there is no way out.  

Short sellers are necessary in order to maintain liquidity in the market, but in today's market shorts are empowered.  This is what caused the Great Depression.  

I don't feel bad for 3 big boys who went down, but I cannot emphasize enough that Cox had a big role in this meltdown.  

オバマ アップデート/SEC's Bear Repellent is not good enough?

最近、このNew Yorker誌の表紙が大問題になっている。

New Yorkerは、洗練された内容と、ドライなユーモアで定評のある週刊誌。

特に、政治に関しては左よりで、記事のレベルも高く、典型的なリベラル・エリート層向け。私はリベラル・エリートではないが、オンラインやポットキャストは愛用している。この表紙は、反オバマ派には、”オバマとミッシェルがこう見える”と風刺したものだ。ところが、オバマ支持派が大騒ぎ。確かに、New Yorker誌購読層以外の人間には、刺激が強すぎたかもしれない。それにしても、ニュース・メディアは朝から晩までこればかり。アメリカ人の中には、未だにオバマがイスラム教だと思ってるゾンビみたいな奴が山ほどいる。

Jibjabからまた面白いビデオが出た。ディランの"The Times They Are a-Changin'" を使ったのが、いけてる。

ビデオのリンクはここ。

ダイアモンド誌に面白い記事あった。“販売奨励金”まで負担するソフトバンクの強気の理由。あの表参道のお祭り騒ぎの後、iPhoneに対して優柔不断に様子見しながら、悪口も言っていたドコモの社長は、どう感じているだろう。ソフトバンクの3Gインフラが悩ましいのは気になるが(借金も多いし)、ソフトバンクのiPhoneのプライシング一つ見ても、柔軟性が見れる。アジリティの無い会社は、成長できない時代が来ているのかも知れない。

One More Thing....MacがAcerを抜かし、米国でマーケットシェア第３位(8.5%)．

SEC's Bear Repellent is not good enough

So, Cox came up with an emergency order to prohibit naked shorting FNM, FRD, and Brokers.  Today, heavily shorted financial stocks skyrocketed.  Cox said naked short selling is not really illegal on CNBC????   Hello, it is illegal, when naked shorting used to drive down the stock price.  Why Cox protecting GSEs and his friends (big boys = major brokers)?  What about small cap companies whose floating stocks are 120% shorted?  "Pre-Borrowing" should be required to all shorting, period.  

Although I am not crazy about Cramer's stock picks, I agree with him on this. 

Watch this video.

Cramer wrote yesterday that some short hedge fund could hire 30 actors to line up at a bank like Wamu and create a bank run.　Oh his show, he added "hedge funds have done things much worse than this".

Then, NY Rep. Ackerman Proposes Bill on Reinstating Uptick Rule.

On the top of it, Oil speculation bill introduced in Senate today.

So the market has bottomed?  Dow rallied $277 (2.5%), today.  

So how the market treated AAPL today?

Totally underperformed the market, up only 1.9% (RIMM was up 5% despite a downgrade).

This is an option expiry week.

Most of the day, AAPL was pinned at $170 strike price.

As AAPL is 13% of QQQQ.  Market Makers (MMs) often use AAPL to take QQQQ down.

Today, MMs fought so hard to keep QQQQ below $45 strike. Every time, QQQQ hit $45, AAPL was taken down quickly.  However, after 2pm, QQQQ broke out above $45.  Then MMs could not hold down AAPL any longer.  Tomorrow is another story.  EBAY's earnings sucked after market, so I anticipate they will play the same game tomorrow.  QQQQ at $45 and AAPL at $170? or $46 and $175?

There is no manipulation in the stock market?   Ask any AAPL shareholders.  

 

オイル７ドル安/SEC stepping up to finally whack shorts?

今日は、オイルが$7ドル以上も落ちた。

理由？　米国の景気懸念？ 需要下落？

実は、大手の投資銀行がオイル先物を売り出したいう噂。

この2行が怪しい．

大逆転のランドルフとモーティマー

モルガン・スタンレ＝(MS)：独立記念日までに$150まで上がるという予想をした。

独立記念日は過ぎ、オイル最高値＄147記録。利益確定売りした可能性あり。

ゴールドマン・サックス(GS):同じく短期間に$150まで上がると予想する。オバマに対する献金で#1である。先週の金曜日に、オバマが投機家連中を初めて批判した。多分GSがOK出したに違いない。その時、直感的に、近々GSがオイル売ると思った。

最近のオイル先物市場は、こういう事実で動かされている。GSとMSが売りに回った可能性あり、それが事実なら、$120まで下がる可能性あり。

AAPLは、iPhone100万台売ったにもかかわらず、今日も叩き売りされた。

市場が健康であれば、4−5%上がってもおかしくない。

今日は、一日中このビデオみたいな気分。

YouTube - Dramatic Chipmunk with an iPhone

SEC stepping up to finally whack shorts?

I doubt it.....but they have addressed a couple of things today.

• SEC to Limit Naked Short Sales of Fannie, Freddie, Brokers
  
• SEC Subpoenas More Than 50 Hedge Fund Advisors
• Possibility of reinstating the Uptick Rule.

Well, when the above were addressed in the Senate hearing, Dow temporarily turned green, but the market sold off before the close negative $92.  I thought Naked Shorting was illegal already.  But SEC has ever really enforced it or went after those crooks.  Shorts are not afraid. However, I saw some hedge funds managers showed up and they were very emotional about the SEC action.   They are not liking it, however, they took down the market anyway to show their defiance.

I felt like this all day.

AAPL was whacked again.  Although Naz closed green, market makers were determined to pin AAPL to 170 area (option expiry week).  I see a huge coiled spring formed here.