Sunday, September 28, 2008

My take on the Bail OUt Plan

Average Americans are outraged....the Wall Street screwed up, why do tax payers have to pay....
Yes....it was their fault.   But what will happen to average people without this plan?
The problem is that people don't understand how credit/finance works....basic Economics 101.  


We are facing slowing economy,  unemployment numbers are increasing......now banks are facing bankruptcy.    They have assets connected to subprime mortgages, which is very illiquid.  They don't know the real value of such assets, therefore they have to write down their assets based on the worst case.  That is why banks are losing money and causing their stocks to go down.  When their stock prices go down, their balance sheets weakens, then rating agencies downgrade their ratings resulting in higher cost of borrowings.

Now, their equity bases are weak, they cannot lend money to companies and people.  That means, the economy would not grow as companies cannot finance their working capital, people cannot borrow money to buy houses, or finance collage tuition.   It is like the financial system had a heart attack, and it needs a bi-pass surgery to get blood (money) flowing.  That is what is the purpose of the Plan.  

I think people need to learn basic education of economics or finance.  The administration did not explain the Plan well to the mainstreet, and the Media overly sensationalized it.

Well, if or when the economy turns around, it is likely that the Plan will yield profit.   I am trying to be optimistic here.   What this plan does is that it will enhance the transparency in banks so that strong banks can survive and they can continue to service.  




Saturday, September 27, 2008

大統領選初の討論会、軍配は?

金融危機のまっただ中、初の討論会が行われた。
私の知っているオバマ支持者(私も含め)は, KO パンチを期待し、マケインを精神的に追詰める事を期待したためイライラしたが、世間はそう見てないようだ。



この選挙は、誰に支持するかを決めている連中はどうでもいいのである。イデオロジーは、討論会で変えられるものではない。無党派のSwing Voter次第なのである。この手の人たちの大半は、時事問題をあまりフォローしてない人が多い。中には、頑固に党派に偏らず候補者の意見を聞いて判断するというタイプもいるが、それは少数。"Low Informed Voters"が大多数であり、イメージや、雰囲気で判断するタイプが多い。討論会の後、そういう無党派のアンケートでは、なんとオバマが圧倒的に優勢であった。オバマ39%、マケイン22%、引分け37%。これは、予想外であった。若いオバマが大統領として職務をこなせるかという懸念が解消したのではないかと思う。国際政治の討論では、オバマは知識広さを披露した(大学の教授みたいだという批判もあるが)。

確かに、マケインは"あんたは解っちゃいない”とか”ナイーブだ”とか言って、オバマの青さを強調した。こういうのは、あくまでも彼の支持層には受けても、一般層には”意地の悪いじいさん”と見られたようだ。



Monday, September 22, 2008

Bears are alive...

Well....DOW dived almost 400, wiping out most of the gain on Friday.
As I predicted, bears worked together to take down the market by doing as follows:
- Bumped up oil price (up 15%)
- Attacked week links, homebuilders, retailers, REITS  etc.
- Attached tech sector (most of them have good balance sheet, they are not so related to credit market).

As I was concerned, many people don't understand what Paulson is doing. On the top of it, our President came out looking so puzzled and confused totally killing our confidence.  He got me scared...  So everyone who wanted to get out of the market tried to get out.



SEC is decisively clueless.  All they had to do was to reinstate the uptick rule, not banning shorting financial stocks.  And there is nobody watching oil futures.....many say it was due to option expiration caused the spike....I don't think so.  Get speculators out of oil futures (but leave enough to keep the market liquid).



Short sellers next target

So.....short selling of financial stocks is prohibited.  They screwed up and took the whole market down, and they are protected now....it is like financial welfare.  The recent bounce is artificial.  

Shorts are smarter than longs.....they will let us know that that will not prevent them from taking down the market....



Now this is what I anticipate how shorts will try to kill this market.
  • take the oil price back up (because Paulson's plan will weaken the US$) in order to revive inflation concerns.
  • short tech stocks (Morgan Stanley downgraded tech/hard ware sector).
  • take down retail sectors - higher oil price will negatively impact retailers.
  • QQQQ will be used to take down the market.  
Bottom line, shorts are pissed off because they are looked as financial terrorist....they will come up with new strategies sooner or later.  

I still think that SEC's decision to ban short selling of financials was not a smart move.  Don't they know that shorts would short sell whatever they can?  All they had to do was to reinstate the uptick rule.






Sunday, September 21, 2008

アメリカの社会主義化

超反社会主義のブッシュ政権のもとアメリカが社会主義化している。
先々週は、ファニーとフレディの国有化、先週はAIGと不良債権の国有化。

私は、ポールソンが財務長官であったことで、この国が救われたと思う。彼はもとゴールドマン・サックスのCEOであり、キャピタル・マーケットの事を最も理解している。彼の組成したプランは極めて複雑であり、所謂庶民と呼ばれる人達には理解できないであろう。

今朝の政治番組では、”King Henry"と呼ばれている。



この数日、ブッシュは去勢されたばかりの猫の様に困惑していた。多分、ポールソンのプランの理解に苦しんでいるのだろう。

政府が買い取る不良債権の額面は不明だ(コストは$700Billion)。最近メリルが同様の債権を額面の22%で売った。政府はどんな値を付けるのだろうか? このプランが成功する為には、不動産市場が安定する事が必要。儲が出れば、国民の利益になる。

また、金融系企業の株の空売りが一時的に禁止された。空売りをする連中が新しいテロリスト扱いされている。空売りを禁止する必要はなかったと思う。悪徳な空売りを監視できなかったSECの責任である。嘘の噂を流す連中が横行していた。トレーダーは噂があれば、事実はどうあれ先ず売るからである。
この空売り禁止令が解かれた日、市場はまた大暴落するだろう。それまで、空売り屋は多分、オイルの価格を高騰させたり、消費力の縮小を理由にリーテイル・セクターを攻撃すると私は見る。彼らは所謂FUD(Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)を市場に蔓延させて大儲する。

こんな状況の中でも、オバマの人気は少し上がったものの、未だに接戦である。何故だろうか? アメリカの根深い人種差別とアメリカ人の無知(大統領を選ぶのに町長を選ぶ様なセンチメントがあること)だと思う。




Wednesday, September 17, 2008

The Wall Streeet Fiasco - What goes around comes around

Within a week, 2 brokers disappeared, and AIG practically crashed.

What went wrong?  CEOs trusted their old boys network too much.  They took too wrong to fix their problems.  It is easy to blame them.  These are pretty smart guys....   Without getting into technicals, I would like to be political here.

I blame Christopher Cox, the chairman of SEC.  He was appointed by Bush.  Cox deregulated as much as he could and made SEC business friendly.  

What happened to Bear, LEH, and what's happening to GS and MS now are also cause by themselves.

Cox removed the uptick rule in July 2007, and let naked short sellers go wild.  Big boys wanted such freedom in the market place so they could take down their targets like Tony Soprano.  But, what goes around comes around, they became victims of their creation. a play ground for short sellers.  Now shorts are killing them.

Financial institutions are easy targets for short sellers.  This is how it works.
When a stock price declines rapidly, rating agencies put them on a watch list requesting the company to raise capital.  In this environment, it is very difficult to raise capital, so they go into liquidity crisis.  The rating agencies downgrade them, it will be even harder to raise capital....  So, once a bank becomes are target, there is no way out.  

Short sellers are necessary in order to maintain liquidity in the market, but in today's market shorts are empowered.  This is what caused the Great Depression.  

I don't feel bad for 3 big boys who went down, but I cannot emphasize enough that Cox had a big role in this meltdown.  





Saturday, September 13, 2008

To Women and Animal Lovers..... Palin has to be stopped

To women,

GOPs must think women are stupid.  Just because we have the same reproductive organs, they think all of us are so excited about Palin.   I am feared....  Because some of us are indeed uninformed and too lazy to think.  We are talking about our President, not the president of home owner's association.

Palin has made some of uninformed ones feel so "related".  She has given some Bubbas a dirty "dominatrix" fantasy.   

But remember what she represents....
  • She has never traveled overseas except for little vacation in Canada and Mexico, and Kuwait and Germany to visit her national guard, then she counted Ireland for refuel.
  • She would support Israel if it attacks Iran without a second thought.
  • She is against any abortion except for saving mothers' lives...so rape victims and incest don't count.
  • She is only one heartbeat away from becoming the President....McCain does not so well....I mean, he has had deadly skin cancer 4 times.  He had to submit over 1000 pages of health detail...
  • She loves to kill animals as detailed below.
  • She has lied about many things including "bridge to nowhere"(the media proved that they are lies), but she has no problem repeating the same fat lies.
  • She jumped 5 collages in 6 years...what does that tell you?  
  • If you want to hear something juicy?  Well... her pregnant daughter's fiance Levi drop out of highschool...
And if you said to yourself, "I don't know Bush Doctrine, either", you are ignorant.  So.....are you too lazy to read new paper, or watch CNN?  Watch this. 



Feypalin











To Animal Lovers,
She loves to kill animals.  She promotes aerial  hunting of wolves and offers $150 for a front left paw of a wolf.

 Sarah Palin Champions Barbaric Aerial Hunting of Wolves



State of Alaska is suing to challenge the recent listing of Polar Bears in the endangered species.  


Polar Bear