Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Red iPhone, MoBile Me, etc./ SEC

赤いiPhoneがクリスマスに向けて登場するそうです。
U2のボノとケネディ家の数人が主体となっている、Product Red(アフリカのエイズの為の基金)の新しい商品となる噂。





Mobile Meに関する不満が飛び交っている。MossbergとPogue(テック評論家の3賢人の2人でfanboyでもある)が、かなり手厳しい記事を書いた。発売当初のbugは少づつ改善されているようだ。私の知ってる人も、"on behave of Steve Jobs"ということでメールをもらい、アップルと直接連絡しながら対処している。

SEC has implied that it will expand banning naked short selling for entire stocks from the current 19 financial institutions, and reinstate revised version of the uptick rule which was removed in last August.

Just looking at recent action in AAPL was totally orchestrated by hedge funds helped by crooks like Henry Blodget. CNBC including Cramer and Fast Money is determined to keep SJ's health issue alive. Why this issue resurfaced on the ER day? I am still not happy the way Peter Oppenheimer handled this on the CC, however, at this point, I don't want AAPL to answer to this nonsense. I am confident that AAPL's legal team is working very hard to be prudent.

Yesterday, Charlie Rose had a segment on the iPhone 3G. Mossberg was one of the guests. It was 90% positive. Mossberg repeated things we already know. The battery life is the issue, however, all 3G phones have issues with battery life.

Here's the link.

It was interesting. Mossberg only carried the 1 gen iPhone in the past year. I guess he really likes it. However, his critisizm on MobileMe was pretty serious (came out this morning). I hope to see Apple responds to these initial issues with the iPhone 3G quickly.

iPhoneの日本唯一の機能 / iPhone's anti perv feature in Japan

日本で販売されたiPhoneのカメラは、サイレント・モードに設定していても、撮影する毎にシャッター音が出るようになっている。変態たちが女性のスカートの中を盗み撮りできないようにするためだ。

3月に帰国した際、私がiPhoneを見せた友達(彼女は特別鋭い)が、最初に指摘したのはこの事だった。さすがに、この話を聞いた時は驚いた。アメリカ人なら、どんなに大人しい子でも泣き寝入りするとは思わない。友達にこの話をしたら、そんな事するのはガキで、大人がそんな事したら変態だと笑っていた。確かにこの国には、アホや変態、危険な奴も沢山いるが、スカートの中の盗撮防止機能が携帯にあるなんて日本だけ。因に、スカートの中の盗撮の事を、upskirt photographyというらしい。





The iPhone 3G in Japan has a special feature unique to that country: The camera always makes a conspicuous “shutter” sound when a picture is taken, even when the phone is set to “silent” mode. In Japan, the camera on mobile phones can be as high as 5.2M Pixels and they could be used for sneak shots such as spy shots. For this reason, Japanese manufacturer have stopped the disabling of shutter sound in silent mode; some manufacturers have even put louder shutter sound.

Well, my girlfriend in Tokyo noticed the lack of "anti perv feature" when she saw my IPhone for the first time. Her keen observation is always astonishing.

Japanese perverts are very juvenile. Many of them love little girls in costume, especially insecure geeks. But in Japan, it is an established subculture. Here, we hear child molesters committing violent crimes all over the place, and it is a serious social issue. Psychologically, I think they are stemming from identical mental illness, however, in Japan they have places and ways to express or release their pent up needs in a relatively controlled environment legally. I am not justifying Japanese way of dealing with such sick behaviors.





















http://cultofmac.com/to-prevent-upskirts-japanese-iphone-3g-always-alerts-when-taking-photos/2356

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

アップルの製品移行/My thoughts on AAPL ER CC

昨日の四半期報告は、株主にとっては悲惨であったが、アップルファンにとっては、アップビートな内容であった。
COOのTim Cookは必要以上に、新しい製品を仄めかしていた。この新製品のお陰で、粗利益率が大幅に下がるというこどである。ライバルが追随出来ない様な製品と何度も強調していた。

色々な可能性が考えられる。
まず、MacBookのリフレッシュ
それともMac Tablet?
新しい、iPod
それとも、MacBook Touch?



Macの粗利益率は高いので、シェア増大を目論んで大幅値下げをするのであろうか? その、新製品は7=9期に出る可能性がある。

One more thing.....この新製品紹介のイベントにSteve Jobsが出るのであれば、お願いだから, 10キロぐらい太って登場してほしい(今、癌再発の噂が飛び交っている)。



Apple's ER/Conference call last night was like "Chinese Water Torture".
Since the review was written in hundreds of articles, I am not going to talk about specific numbers.

I have come to a conclusion that I have to price in a new risk factor, the management's ability to manage the street.

AAPL's management totally disregards investors. Sand-bagging the guidance has become ridiculous. I understand that AAPL has to tame high expectations from the street. But they are now simply throwing $1 for next quarter or 30% gross margin for next year....just round numbers. It is their way of "not really giving guidance", however, the street will not take it as "another sand bagging" due to the current market health.

As for the statement like "SJ's health is a private matter", was too cold. They could have responded "the rumor is baseless", which would not have damaged SJ's ego if it is what Peter Oppenheimer was protecting. I am certain that this issue has been discussed at AAPL's legal team and personally, I am not concerned about SJ's health because I believe that the Company knows that it is a material matter. Shorts are smarter in many cases, I think they planned it on a very timely basis, and they bet that Peter O will not respond to satisfy investors. His communication skill clearly needs improvement.

Well..I found this, too...SJ's cancer has not returned according to the source.


Cutting the gross margin forecast was painful. However, if AAPL shifts its business model to cut Mac prices, HP and Dell will have to be concerned. Current 8.5% market share of AAPL...still enough room to grow. Long term, I am comfortable with AAPL's fundamentals.

Thoughts on the price action... It opened below $150 and ended at $162. I guess smart shorts ("SJ's health shorts", and "sand-bagging shorts") realized their trades were done and took profit quickly.

Friday, July 18, 2008

田舎のファーマーズ・マーケット/Market Manipulation ahead of AAPL ER

近所に大きなファマーズ・マーケットがある。
兎に角安い。大きな水瓜が2つで5ドル。







燃料費激高の昨今、Locavoreという新語が少し流行っている。その土地の産物を食べるという意味。運搬に使われる燃料の事を考ると、近隣で採れる野菜や果物を食べる事は緑化に貢献するということ。この辺は、隣町がアメリカ一の苺産地、車で20分くらいの行けば、トマトの大産地。隣の州は桃で有名なジョージア。また、見逃せないバーゲンは、今日中に売らなければいけない物や、少し形の悪いもの(スーパーで売れない)が非常に安い。エスニックな物、例えば20世紀もある(ただし、鳥取産ではない)。フロリダ産のキーライムは、すだちによく似ている(それほど、香りが高くないが)、安いので愛用している。

Market Manipulation ahead of AAPL ER

On Friday, Market Maker managed to take down AAPL to $165 strike price just few minutes before the closing (option expiry). Bears are betting that AAPL will have a bad ER like GOOG and MSFT with the usual rediculously low guidance. I found a very interesting article written by Zack Bass. Now...I do not agree with everything he says, but what was happening on Friday was just unbelivable.

The link is here.

This is what happens when SEC is clearly on big boys' side. Now naked shorting is banned on big financials, so they are unwinding their short positionss on financials and use that funds to naked short other stocks. Many people are angry at the recent SEC's action. This open letter to Cox is worth reading. Ahead of the ER, a FUD came out of Germany today. This reporter was conveniently told by an Apple manager that next shipment of the iPhones will not be until October (implication: the current quarter will suck, and AAPL may not meet the target of 10 million unit).

Here's funny video about the market.
Link - here.

苹果公司在华首家 Apple Store 零售店 7 月 19 日星期六北京开业 / AAPL's New Step to China

Appleのがオリンピックを前に北京に初めて店を出す。既に、列が出来ているらしい。


残念乍ら、iPhoneの発売は間に合わなかった。とは言っても、既にアンロックした前モデルは100万台以上流れている。
米国には、そういうiPhoneのアジアに於ける動きを追うサイトがある。iPhonAsia 到达中国和亚洲。主催者のDanとは、メッセージ・ボードを通じて情報交換しているが。先日, 私のブログを紹介してくれた。 

今年、日本に於けるMacの売上げが急上昇している。前四半期には売上台数が50%上昇。日本のPCは市場は、DellやHP(質より量)がライバルである欧米と違い、アップスケールなSONYやNECと対決しなければならない。そういう土俵で、Macのシェアが急上昇している事実は、特記に値する。

Macを購入してから3年。Gatewayのラップトップを近所のギークに修理に出した時、”Macばかり使ってるから、アホになるんや”と皮肉を言われた。確かにMacの操作は簡単だし、故障した事無い(私に限って言えば)。ギーク達が、Macを恐れているのが理解できる。





Apple's very first store will open tomorrow in China.
They are already forming a line there. In China, it is not about market share, it is all about volume. Majority of people will be buying cheaper PCs. However, whoever can afford will chase Apple products. There are so many people who want to be this "whoever" in China. In an emerging/fast growing economy, "status symbol" means a lot. That is why China is inportant for AAPL.

AAPL investors are watching AAPL's action in Asia very closely. There is a very informative site called iPhonAsia 到达中国和亚洲 by Dan Butterfield. His educated posts are valuable to understand huge growth of AAPL in Asia.

Yesterday's GOOG's miss (and MSFT) negatively impacted Then throughout the morning, AAPL was used to manipulate QQQQ to pinned below 45. Whenever QQQQ broke above 45, they took down AAPL (13% of QQQQ).

First of all, the miss by MSFT could be partially because Vista sucks and people are moving to Mac OS?
And ATT said this around noon iPhone orders may take 10-21 days to fill", then a sharp bear raid started.
This means, iPhones are selling fast, beyound anyone's imagination. At the same time, RIMM's stock shoot up. This shows how myopic the Street is right now.

So far, GOOG, MSFT, RIMM and others screwed up in their ERs. I guess bears are thinking that AAPL will be the same case.
In addition, shorts that have been naked shorted financials are looking anything naked shortable outside of financials.

I hope Peter Oppenheimer learned an expensive lesson in January, and protect AAPL investor this time.
Stop giving rediculously low guidance. Don't underestimate this market and the bears this time.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

対照的な米国経済事情/Shorts are still having fun

最近、人が列んでるのを見る機会が多かった。

破綻したIndyMacに押し掛ける預金者。


5番街のiPhone ライン。


どちらのラインが今のアメリカの経済を象徴しているのだろう。
私が住む田舎でも、立派なiPhoneラインができていた。オイルが急激に下落している。
オイル価格が今の調子で下がり、トウモロコシを燃料に使うのをやめれば、インフレ懸念は減少するだろう。

After SEC's bear repellent was introduced, shorts started covering financials.
As a result, we have seen huge rally for two days. But shorts are still having a good time. They came around to short materials, and some techs. SEC is helping out the very guys (big brokers) who are shorting the hell out of the market.

Well, GOOG and MSFT missed, and my beloved AAPL went down with them after hours.
After AAPL started selling iPhones, we had great news, but these news were only used as "sell on the news".

The only thing that going for me is the APP Store. Pogue made a funny video. True, these applications are really addictive.

Porgue's Video.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

オバマ アップデート/SEC's Bear Repellent is not good enough?

最近、このNew Yorker誌の表紙が大問題になっている。



New Yorkerは、洗練された内容と、ドライなユーモアで定評のある週刊誌。
特に、政治に関しては左よりで、記事のレベルも高く、典型的なリベラル・エリート層向け。私はリベラル・エリートではないが、オンラインやポットキャストは愛用している。この表紙は、反オバマ派には、”オバマとミッシェルがこう見える”と風刺したものだ。ところが、オバマ支持派が大騒ぎ。確かに、New Yorker誌購読層以外の人間には、刺激が強すぎたかもしれない。それにしても、ニュース・メディアは朝から晩までこればかり。アメリカ人の中には、未だにオバマがイスラム教だと思ってるゾンビみたいな奴が山ほどいる。

Jibjabからまた面白いビデオが出た。ディランの"The Times They Are a-Changin'" を使ったのが、いけてる。

ビデオのリンクはここ。

Time for Some <span class=

ダイアモンド誌に面白い記事あった。“販売奨励金”まで負担するソフトバンクの強気の理由。あの表参道のお祭り騒ぎの後、iPhoneに対して優柔不断に様子見しながら、悪口も言っていたドコモの社長は、どう感じているだろう。ソフトバンクの3Gインフラが悩ましいのは気になるが(借金も多いし)、ソフトバンクのiPhoneのプライシング一つ見ても、柔軟性が見れる。アジリティの無い会社は、成長できない時代が来ているのかも知れない。

One More Thing....MacがAcerを抜かし、米国でマーケットシェア第3位(8.5%).




SEC's Bear Repellent is not good enough

So, Cox came up with an emergency order to prohibit naked shorting FNM, FRD, and Brokers.  Today, heavily shorted financial stocks skyrocketed.  Cox said naked short selling is not really illegal on CNBC????   Hello, it is illegal, when naked shorting used to drive down the stock price.  Why Cox protecting GSEs and his friends (big boys = major brokers)?  What about small cap companies whose floating stocks are 120% shorted?  "Pre-Borrowing" should be required to all shorting, period.  

Although I am not crazy about Cramer's stock picks, I agree with him on this. 

Cramer wrote yesterday that some short hedge fund could hire 30 actors to line up at a bank like Wamu and create a bank run. Oh his show, he added "hedge funds have done things much worse than this".

So the market has bottomed?  Dow rallied $277 (2.5%), today.  

So how the market treated AAPL today?
Totally underperformed the market, up only 1.9% (RIMM was up 5% despite a downgrade).
This is an option expiry week.
Most of the day, AAPL was pinned at $170 strike price.
As AAPL is 13% of QQQQ.  Market Makers (MMs) often use AAPL to take QQQQ down.
Today, MMs fought so hard to keep QQQQ below $45 strike. Every time, QQQQ hit $45, AAPL was taken down quickly.  However, after 2pm, QQQQ broke out above $45.  Then MMs could not hold down AAPL any longer.  Tomorrow is another story.  EBAY's earnings sucked after market, so I anticipate they will play the same game tomorrow.  QQQQ at $45 and AAPL at $170? or $46 and $175?

There is no manipulation in the stock market?   Ask any AAPL shareholders.  






 


























Tuesday, July 15, 2008

オイル7ドル安/SEC stepping up to finally whack shorts?

今日は、オイルが$7ドル以上も落ちた。
理由? 米国の景気懸念? 需要下落?
実は、大手の投資銀行がオイル先物を売り出したいう噂。
この2行が怪しい.

Randolph and Mortimer Duke
大逆転のランドルフとモーティマー

モルガン・スタンレ=(MS):独立記念日までに$150まで上がるという予想をした。
独立記念日は過ぎ、オイル最高値$147記録。利益確定売りした可能性あり。

ゴールドマン・サックス(GS):同じく短期間に$150まで上がると予想する。オバマに対する献金で#1である。先週の金曜日に、オバマが投機家連中を初めて批判した。多分GSがOK出したに違いない。その時、直感的に、近々GSがオイル売ると思った。

最近のオイル先物市場は、こういう事実で動かされている。GSとMSが売りに回った可能性あり、それが事実なら、$120まで下がる可能性あり。

AAPLは、iPhone100万台売ったにもかかわらず、今日も叩き売りされた。
市場が健康であれば、4−5%上がってもおかしくない。

今日は、一日中このビデオみたいな気分。





SEC stepping up to finally whack shorts?

I doubt it.....but they have addressed a couple of things today.
Well, when the above were addressed in the Senate hearing, Dow temporarily turned green, but the market sold off before the close negative $92.  I thought Naked Shorting was illegal already.  But SEC has ever really enforced it or went after those crooks.  Shorts are not afraid. However, I saw some hedge funds managers showed up and they were very emotional about the SEC action.   They are not liking it, however, they took down the market anyway to show their defiance.


AAPL was whacked again.  Although Naz closed green, market makers were determined to pin AAPL to 170 area (option expiry week).  I see a huge coiled spring formed here.  





























Monday, July 14, 2008

1million iPhones sold

100万台のiPhoneが売れたと発表された。
これは、想像を超えたサクセスとしかいえない。去年100万台売るのに74日かかった。今回はたったの3日。アナリストもせいぜい45−47万台と予想していた。App Storeから1千万のダウンロードがあった。

発売直後で、不具合がどうのとか色々コメントが出る。日本では未だに”ケータイ”という表現が使われているし、そういう感覚で買った人も多いと思う。これは、大きな間違いだ。iPhoneはラップトップの代わりに使える(外出中にスプレットシート制作や長い文章書く必要が無ければ)。新しいアプリが毎日発表され、ソフトも頻繁にアップデートされる、現在進行形の新しいマシーンだと認識している人は, 残念乍ら少ないと思う。



Apple announced that 1 million iPhones in the past weekend.
Calling it "success" is an understatement.  It is beyond even Gene Munster's imagination (he anticipated 450 to 475 million units). On the top of it, 1o million applications were downloaded.  

Some people still consider the iPhone a cellphone.  It is the biggest misconception.  iPhone can replace a laptop for many people who don't have to work on spreadsheets or write long documents when they are out.  The iPhone evolves on a daily basis as APP Store introduces all kinds of applications to meet everyone's needs.

So how did the market treated AAPL today?
In the morning, AAPL went up to low 179's (up more than 3%), then ended 173's (up less than 1%).  How could it happen?  This market sentiment is extremely sadistic.  Upon Paulie's statement on Fannie and Freddie, market rallied this morning....but it faded quickly.  "Sell on the strength".  So, AAPL was sold throughout the day.  The volume was average, but it was frustrating to see.  Typical "sell on the news" action.  

In today's market, fundamentals don't work.  Baseless bad rumors take over good news and fundamentals.  Good news trigger a huge sell off.  VIX at 28's, are we close to capitulation? Buyers are hiding in fetal position.  But seeing the long lines formed all over the world to buy the iPhone sure did not look like we are in bad economy.  Doesn't that show that AAPL is recession proof?  















Sunday, July 13, 2008

うちのイカ犬/ My Funny Looking Boy, Squiddy

去年の夏、コナンが突然天国に行った。私が言うのも変だが、立派なボクサーだった。リードなしで五番街を歩ける様な犬。酷い鬱状態になった私を救ってくれたのが、ボクサー・レスキューから引取ったペイシー。 ペイシーは耳が聞こえない、白いボクサーもどき。イカみたいな顔してるし、寝ている時は苺大福.  引取った当初は、情けない犬だった。筋肉付いてないし、全く自信がない。でも、こんな犬も魅力がある。

この子は、2007年のバレンタイン・デイに、フロリダのAlligator Alleyに ある公園で拾われシェルター行きとなった。その後、誰かが引取ったものの、こいつ甘え噛みが始まるとしつこいし(痛い)、遊び好きで凄い勢いで飛びついて来るので、その人はアタックされたと勘違いしたらしい。その後、ボクサー・レスキューの人に引取られたが、その家の他のボクサー達から酷い虐めにあう。仕方 ないので、ペット・ホテルに預けられていた。

当初は、ボランティアで飼い主が見つかるまで里子として面倒見るつもりだった。ところが1ヶ 月後、この子を引取りたい人が現れた。私はペイシーはその人に引取ってもらい、他のボクサーを里子にするつもりであった。ところが、その朝、ペイシーは静 かに私の膝に大きな頭をもたげて、動こうとしない。きっと何か気づいていたんだと思う。私はその時、この子を引取ろうと決心した。

近所のオス犬はコナンを恐れていた(メス犬には、異常にモテたが)。ところが、ペイシーは友達がすぐできる。他の犬と遊べない犬でも、友達にしてしまう。多分、他の犬も警戒しない程能天気なんだろう。子犬の時から、たらい回しにされたから、世渡りの名人なのかもしれない。



Last year, I lost Conan, a tremendous dog...he was a perfect dog, his beauty and his attitude...I could walk him on 5th Ave. NYC without leash.   I was deeply depressed.  But fostering Pacey (sometimes called Squiddy) brought me out of the darkness.   He is a funny looking boxer (I doubt he is pure).  He is deaf, but he sometimes makes me think that he is faking it.  He looks like a squid with a sad long face, and his coat is so thin that he feels like marshmallow.  When he came, he was so wimpy looking....made me feel sorry for him.  Now I am in love with his imperfection.

This boy was abandoned in a park near Alligator Alley.  He was found on Valentine's Day 2007 and taken to a shelter.  Someone from St. Petes adopted him but she thought he started attacking her according to the paperwork.  I kind of understand why she was afraid.  He is excessively playful.  When he is happy, he starts nibbling my hands obsessively and he jumps on me (can be seen as a Kujo moment).  But that was all playing, and I managed to tame him.  So she surrendered Pacey to the Boxer Rescue.  He was then attacked by other boxers at the foster home.  After that he had been kept in a boarding facility for a while. 
 
Initially, I did not intend to adopt Pacey.  I just wanted to foster boxers that needed help.  A month later, a nice gentleman decided to adopt Pacey.  I was ready to let him go.  When I was about to call him, something magical happened.  Pacey slowly came to me and hugged me gently and  stayed there for a while.  I felt he knew what was going on.....I totally broke down and decided to keep him.

Though female dogs loved Conan, he totally intimidated and dominated neighborhood male dogs.  Pacey is different.  He is shamelessly friendly to everyone.  He makes friends with dogs that never play with other dogs.  I guess his tough life as a puppy made him a master charmer.  


 







Saturday, July 12, 2008

大嘘がまかりと通る市況/Big Fat Lies are bought in this market

今日から、コチラに移ることにしました。
(昨日までは
http://greenaapl.exblog.jp/
これから、日本語と英語でブログします。内容は同じとは限りません。

昨日、ダウが一時11,000をきった。主因は:
  • Fannie MaeとFreddie Mac(旧住宅金融公庫が民間化したもの、両社共上場)の資金繰り懸念さらに深まり、一時株価が50%も下がる。
  • イスラエルとイランの相互のミサイル攻撃懸念、原油価格急上昇。
FannieとFreddieは、確かに増資する必要あるが、政府が両社を潰すわけがない。イスラエルとイランは近そうで、かなり距離があるため、テクニカルにミサイル攻撃は不可能。イスラエルはこれを実現するには、米国に支援を頼るしかないし、米国が現状これを支援する可能性は低い。

という訳で、こういう少しの事実を散りばめた嘘がトレーダー間飛び交う。去年、証券取引委員会(SEC)が大恐慌時代に施行された"Uptick Rule"(最終約定価格より低い価格の売り注文を出してはいけないという ルール)を去年の8月に取り除いた為、空売りの連中が凄い勢いで市場を攻撃できる様になった。事実、市場の変動が激化したのは、去年の夏から。空売りの連中が、強力し合えば、会社を潰すのは比較的簡単。最近の良い例はベア・スターンズ。典型的なパターンとしては、噂から始まり、マスコミが誇張する、株価の下降にブレーキが掛らなくなる。今、リーマンが次の餌食になりそうだ。昨日も16%下落。ただ、資金繰りは連銀で短期資金の工面できるので、ベアの様に簡単にはいかないと思う。

このように、ネガティブなセンチメントを利用して、犯罪に近い嘘が横行している。まあ、SECが腰抜けなので、今の所は誰も刑務所に行く心配してないようだ。

話変わって、Bloomingdale'sがBeatles special editionのiPodを出すらしい。



Bloomingdale's Beatles special edition iPod.


I decided to move my blog from http://greenaapl.exblog.jp/ to here...because I had problem posting pictures. And this time, I am writing in both English and Japanese.

We have been officially in a bear market for about a week or so. Dow dipped below 11,000 during yesterday's trading hours. As we all know. it was due to intensified concerns involving 1) Fannie and Freddie's ability to survive, and 2) Israel and Iran (war game/potential missile attack possibilities triggered oil price to shoot up). Both of these were unreasonably exaggerated. Big lies with little bit of truth always work in a bear market in a huge way.

Since the Uptick Rule was removed in last August, the market has been extremely volatile. I still believe that the take down of Bear Sterns was possible partially due to the absence of the Uptick Rule. Now Lehman seems to be the next target. It will not be easy because of their access to FRB's discount window. SEC is intentionally acting dumb. They screwed in a big way, but they are afraid to open their mouth and say "the removal of the uptick rule was a mistake".

In such a fragile environment, good fundamentals do not work. "Sell on the news" almost always happens. AAPL was also punished on the iDay. The media ignored the huge line of people waiting for the iPhone, but they mostly focused on the iTunes glitch. Our Gene Munster expects that more than 4 million iPhones will be sold this quarter alone. I think we will see a meaningful bounce next week if we don't see a huge capitulation (or huge hedge funds blow up) in the market. Sure there are tons of issues in this economy (oil and financials). Although nobody is smart enough to call the bottom, at some point, all the bad news will be priced in and fundamentals will mean something again.