(昨日まではhttp://greenaapl.exblog.jp/）
これから、日本語と英語でブログします。内容は同じとは限りません。
昨日、ダウが一時11,000をきった。主因は：
- Fannie MaeとFreddie Mac(旧住宅金融公庫が民間化したもの、両社共上場)の資金繰り懸念さらに深まり、一時株価が50%も下がる。
- イスラエルとイランの相互のミサイル攻撃懸念、原油価格急上昇。
という訳で、こういう少しの事実を散りばめた嘘がトレーダー間飛び交う。去年、証券取引委員会(SEC)が大恐慌時代に施行された"Uptick Rule"(最終約定価格より低い価格の売り注文を出してはいけないという ルール）を去年の８月に取り除いた為、空売りの連中が凄い勢いで市場を攻撃できる様になった。事実、市場の変動が激化したのは、去年の夏から。空売りの連中が、強力し合えば、会社を潰すのは比較的簡単。最近の良い例はベア・スターンズ。典型的なパターンとしては、噂から始まり、マスコミが誇張する、株価の下降にブレーキが掛らなくなる。今、リーマンが次の餌食になりそうだ。昨日も16％下落。ただ、資金繰りは連銀で短期資金の工面できるので、ベアの様に簡単にはいかないと思う。
このように、ネガティブなセンチメントを利用して、犯罪に近い嘘が横行している。まあ、SECが腰抜けなので、今の所は誰も刑務所に行く心配してないようだ。
話変わって、Bloomingdale'sがBeatles special editionのiPodを出すらしい。
Bloomingdale's Beatles special edition iPod.
I decided to move my blog from http://greenaapl.exblog.jp/ to here...because I had problem posting pictures. And this time, I am writing in both English and Japanese.
We have been officially in a bear market for about a week or so. Dow dipped below 11,000 during yesterday's trading hours. As we all know. it was due to intensified concerns involving 1) Fannie and Freddie's ability to survive, and 2) Israel and Iran (war game/potential missile attack possibilities triggered oil price to shoot up). Both of these were unreasonably exaggerated. Big lies with little bit of truth always work in a bear market in a huge way.
Since the Uptick Rule was removed in last August, the market has been extremely volatile. I still believe that the take down of Bear Sterns was possible partially due to the absence of the Uptick Rule. Now Lehman seems to be the next target. It will not be easy because of their access to FRB's discount window. SEC is intentionally acting dumb. They screwed in a big way, but they are afraid to open their mouth and say "the removal of the uptick rule was a mistake".
In such a fragile environment, good fundamentals do not work. "Sell on the news" almost always happens. AAPL was also punished on the iDay. The media ignored the huge line of people waiting for the iPhone, but they mostly focused on the iTunes glitch. Our Gene Munster expects that more than 4 million iPhones will be sold this quarter alone. I think we will see a meaningful bounce next week if we don't see a huge capitulation (or huge hedge funds blow up) in the market. Sure there are tons of issues in this economy (oil and financials). Although nobody is smart enough to call the bottom, at some point, all the bad news will be priced in and fundamentals will mean something again.
We have been officially in a bear market for about a week or so. Dow dipped below 11,000 during yesterday's trading hours. As we all know. it was due to intensified concerns involving 1) Fannie and Freddie's ability to survive, and 2) Israel and Iran (war game/potential missile attack possibilities triggered oil price to shoot up). Both of these were unreasonably exaggerated. Big lies with little bit of truth always work in a bear market in a huge way.
Since the Uptick Rule was removed in last August, the market has been extremely volatile. I still believe that the take down of Bear Sterns was possible partially due to the absence of the Uptick Rule. Now Lehman seems to be the next target. It will not be easy because of their access to FRB's discount window. SEC is intentionally acting dumb. They screwed in a big way, but they are afraid to open their mouth and say "the removal of the uptick rule was a mistake".
In such a fragile environment, good fundamentals do not work. "Sell on the news" almost always happens. AAPL was also punished on the iDay. The media ignored the huge line of people waiting for the iPhone, but they mostly focused on the iTunes glitch. Our Gene Munster expects that more than 4 million iPhones will be sold this quarter alone. I think we will see a meaningful bounce next week if we don't see a huge capitulation (or huge hedge funds blow up) in the market. Sure there are tons of issues in this economy (oil and financials). Although nobody is smart enough to call the bottom, at some point, all the bad news will be priced in and fundamentals will mean something again.
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