In 1982, Tom Bradley who was the LA mayor was leading the gubernatorial election by gaining 65% based on the opinion polls. Tom Bradley lost this election. How could this happen? Some white voters lied. They did not want to be looked as racists. This was not an isolated incident. This happened to several other black candidates, as recently as 2006 when Harold Ford lost in the Senatorial election in Tennessee.
In case of Obama, it is still a risk, however, there are many mitigating factors.
More black and young voters are more motivated vote this time. There are more registered voters in Dems. Some voters think they are not racist.....however, when they go to the voting booths, some of them vote based on their guts, not their heads. Especially swing voters are not reliable. At least the following chart shows some diminishing Bradley Effect, however, it was the primary result, so swing voters are not included.
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